No Spoilers! Prediction Markets Enable Users to Wager on Pre-Taped ‘Survivor’ Episodes

(AsiaGameHub) –   Prediction market platforms are becoming more widespread, operating on the principle that users can forecast any outcome. By definition, predictions are intended for events that have not yet occurred. Yet, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket are permitting users to place trades on popular television programs that were pre-recorded, such as Survivor.

Note: This article might include spoilers for viewers who prefer to watch Survivor without prior knowledge of likely outcomes.

The activity on these markets indicates that numerous participants are already privy to the results. Survivor was filmed in June of the previous year. All contestants are required to sign rigorous Non-Disclosure Agreements (NDAs) that bar them from disclosing game results, details about the cast, or filming information, with potential fines reaching $5 million.

It seems, however, that some information has been leaked. Before the latest episode aired, the market accurately forecast that Mike White would be eliminated from the show, which is exactly what happened.

Beyond betting on which contestant will be voted off, users can also wager on specific phrases participants will say in each episode.

Comparable markets exist for other shows and online videos. An editor working for MrBeast was discovered betting on the YouTuber’s dialogue and was subsequently penalized by Kalshi. Coincidentally, MrBeast featured as a celebrity guest on Survivor this season.

The season finale is not set to air until May, but the winner has already been determined. Users on Kalshi seem to know this, as one contestant is currently given a 91% chance of winning. Nearly $10 million has been traded on that particular market.

On Polymarket, the same contestant has an 89% chance of victory, though the trading volume is significantly lower at approximately $478,000.

It is not known if the show’s producers have approved this form of wagering. In the past, Survivor creator Mark Burnett sued Jim Early, who was identified as the person leaking show information on the site SurvivorSucks.com.

The lawsuit was dismissed after Early presented an email that supposedly verified contestant Russell Hantz as the origin of the spoilers. Hantz has refuted these claims and was never subjected to legal proceedings.

Legal Gray Area

Kalshi’s terms of use expressly forbid anyone involved with the production of the show, including contestants, from participating in its markets. The NDAs for Survivor also prohibit crew and players from directly telling anyone the outcome. This situation creates legal ambiguities where individuals with insider knowledge could potentially determine the results without technically breaking the rules of either Kalshi or Survivor.

For instance, legal experts consulted by the New York Times suggested it would likely be permissible for a person to bet on the markets even if their neighbor, who is a contestant, recently purchased an expensive sports car. This would hold true as long as the contestant did not explicitly confirm they had won.

However, if someone asked the contestant if they won and received a wink in response, that could be interpreted as sharing insider information, which is illegal. Although Kalshi maintains it is taking steps to prevent insider trading, the existence of these markets presents potential issues.

In the United Kingdom, betting firms have long provided odds on politics, entertainment, and various other events now accessible in the US via prediction markets. They have, however, avoided offering odds on television shows that were pre-recorded.

Lawmakers Want Markets Restricted

These markets could face a ban in the US in the near future. Legislators have proposed a bill that would forbid platforms from facilitating trades on events where the outcome is already known to some or can be entirely controlled by an individual.

The proposed Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act also aims to explicitly prohibit markets related to government actions, terrorism, war, and assassination.

Sen. Chris Murphy, one of the lawmakers sponsoring the bill, commented, “There’s no getting around the fact that any prediction market where somebody knows or controls the outcome of a bet is ripe for corruption.”

They could also spoil the ending of your favorite television program.